Ukrainians have sharply lost interest in the dollar: what is really happening with the currency market.

The dollar falls, interest declines
The dollar falls, interest declines

The national currency of Ukraine has significantly strengthened in recent months, which has led to a decrease in Ukrainians' interest in the dollar. This has resulted in a reduction in the volumes of currency imports into the country.

In the first two weeks of April, the National Bank carried out currency interventions totaling $928 million, which is less than in January ($1 billion). The average daily demand for currency on the interbank market has decreased by 20%, while the supply has increased by 9%. The cash demand has also reduced by a quarter, to $31 million.

These indicators have allowed the NBU to reduce its interventions to a 12-month low ($2.62 billion). If this trend continues, this figure may set a new annual minimum.

Exchange rate fluctuations also depend on these indicators. The selling price of the dollar has decreased from 43 UAH to 41.75 UAH, which represents about a 3% decline.

The volumes of foreign currency imports have also decreased. Banks imported $1.08 billion in February, which is almost 40% less than in January.

Despite this, experts claim that a currency deficit should not be expected. The market is saturated with foreign cash, and currency supply is increasing every year.

Analysts point to the seasonal nature of the decrease in demand for currency, as well as the improvement in the population's currency expectations, which occurred as a result of the NBU's actions. The reduction in hryvnia liquidity and the rise of electronic instruments and cryptocurrencies are also affecting the situation.

At the same Time, the supply of currency from businesses is increasing, related to the lack of hryvnia funds in enterprises and preparation for tax payments.

However, experts warn that the decline in interest in currency should not be overestimated. Trading on the interbank market still remains scarce, and the interventions of the National Bank are a key factor for currency stability.

Some banks have not felt the decrease in demand for currency among their clients, especially in Oschadbank, where the demand for currency continues to grow.

Thus, the strengthening of the national currency and the decrease in interest in the dollar are observed in Ukraine. This may have a seasonal nature and affects exchange rate fluctuations. However, a currency deficit still exists, and the currency interventions of the NBU remain a key factor for stability. Businesses are also actively selling their currency savings due to a lack of working capital and preparation for tax payments.


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