ISW analysts assess the ability of the Russian army to break the situation in Kursk region.

According to the Institute for the Study of War, the number of Russian troops in the Kursk region is insignificant as they have been collected over a long period of Time. There is also no significant redeployment of troops from the front in Ukraine.

According to the agency, assessments by Western and Ukrainian experts on the number of Russian troops in the Kursk region are 'not a significant exaggeration'. The Russian army is preparing for a future counteroffensive and the expulsion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from Russian territory.

It has recently become known that Russia has concentrated about 50,000 servicemen in the Kursk region, including 8-10,000 troops from North Korea. Moscow plans to use these forces to expel the Ukrainian Armed Forces from Russian territory by the end of January 2025.

According to Ukrainian sources, in September and October 2024, Russian troops stationed in the Kursk region ranged from 30,000 to 50,000 servicemen, including 35,000 from the Northern grouping of Russian troops.

A serviceman of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reported that Russian forces are transferring elements of the 104th Airborne Regiment and several battalions of the 177th Marine Infantry Regiment to the Kursk region. However, there are currently no independent confirmations of these redeployments.

Also, in mid-October 2024, reports were registered about the actions of units of the 177th Marine Infantry Regiment near Chasiv Yar.

The information from the Institute also states that Russian military personnel often transfer new reserves to the Kursk region due to significant losses of personnel and equipment. However, it is likely that these reserves are intended to replace losses rather than significantly strengthen the existing grouping in the region.